In February[1], Moderna announced that it anticipates the pandemic will reach its final stages by end-2022 in selected regions globally, but the company stressed the point that seasonal booster shots will still be required for protection against breakthrough infections.
Speaking to CNBC, Moderna chief medical officer Paul Burton said, “We do believe that we are transitioning into an endemic phase marked by a period of stability in case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths, at least in the Northern Hemisphere,” However, he also warned that cases of infection and death from COVID would continue even during the endemic. “We can get out of the pandemic, but honestly the best way to do it is through vaccination and boosting. We’ve seen days here in the U.S. of three and a half to four thousand people dying, and those deaths are preventable.”
Moderna believes that seasonal vaccines to boost protection for high-risk and immunocompromised communities will be crucial to prevent over-hospitalization. While the initial two-dose vaccine regimens we are all familiar with do offer protection, getting the additional booster shots are more effective against COVID and its different variants. Getting said booster shot has to become a regular thing; one example is the flu, which is already in their endemic stage: people are used to getting their flu shots every autumn and winter.
Additionally, the pharmaceuticals giant announced that it is testing a new bivalent booster that combines its existing vaccine with an Omicron-specific booster, which should provide more comprehensive protection against COVID-19 variants than its predecessor.
As the company makes the case for booster shots, this forecast will likely increase its sales in H2 2022; both Moderna and Pfizer are the vaccine suppliers of choice for most developed countries. Despite widespread global stock volatility, Moderna’s stock rose 11.4% on February 24, and its 2021 revenue was US$18.5 billion. It also reported Q4 2021 revenues of US$7.2 billion on this date, and has projected that its vaccine sales for 2022 will reach at least US$19 billion, as opposed to the previous estimated figure of US$17 billion. As for Pfizer[2], the company reported that its revenue for 2021 rose by 6% operationally to US$44.4 billion (excluding the contributions of Comirnaty and Paxlovid). Additionally, in Q4 2021, its revenues grew to US$23.8 billion, indicating an operational growth of 106% over the US$11.6 billion recorded in Q4 2020. Pfizer also projected that its revenues for end-2022 should reach US$98 billion to US$102 billion.
Tying the Need for Boosters to the Global Vaccination Strategy
Moderna and other vaccine suppliers are racing to meet the goals of the WHO’s Global Vaccination Strategy[3]. Because COVID-19 is an evolving and increasingly transmissible virus, vaccination across the board is essential to encourage an endemic phase, thereby reducing deaths, severe disease and overall disease burden; curtail the impact on the health system; fully resume socio-economic activities; and to reduce the risk of new variants. WHO has stated that for all of this to be achieved, at least 70% of the world’s population will need to be fully vaccinated.
To vaccinate the 70%, at least 11 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines are needed. In September 2021, close to 6.3 billion doses had been administered globally, while contracts were in place for most of the remaining 4.7 billion doses. Global production is at nearly 1.5 billion doses per month; as such in terms of supply, there will be sufficient doses the achieve global vaccination targets if there is equitable distribution.
In terms of the financing required to vaccinate 70% of the population in low- and low-middle income countries (LICs, LMICs) worldwide is estimated to be US$55 billion, based on a combined and procurement and programmatic delivery cost of US$10 per dose. Fortunately, the majority of these doses have been secured by the significant financing already invested through COVAX, AVAT, and bilateral contracts.
As such, looking at the call for boosters in developed countries in relation to the Global Vaccination Strategy, it is clear that while the fight against COVID-19 has accelerated its pace in some parts of the world, other regions are still working on getting their populations vaccinated with the first three doses; this massive undertaking must be completed before we can collectively conclude that this pandemic has indeed transitioned to an endemic.
Sources:
1. https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/moderna-pandemic-endemic-booster-shot/amp/
2. https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/pfizer-full-year-2021-revenues/
[1] https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/moderna-pandemic-endemic-booster-shot/amp/
[2] https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/pfizer-full-year-2021-revenues/
[3] https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/covid-19/strategy-to-achieve-global-covid-19-vaccination-by-mid-2022.pdf
